Assessing the energy security in Russia: the AHP approach

Abstract

This paper develops a novel framework to assess the energy security (ES) of Russia. The framework is a mathematical model based on synergy of several researches in this field. First part of this research is literature review. Among 23 papers, 2 were selected as they had a good criteria classification system, combination of them was proofed to be the best for further framework development. Then, criteria weighting was conducted, using analytic hierarchy process (AHP), based on Russian legislative acts and risk analysis, provided by Russian authorities in “energy strategy 2035” normative act. As criteria were weighted, quantitative comparison became possible between reviewed papers. Comparison was conducted in 2 steps, first part is a brief comparison, based on amount of indexes and their comprehensivety. Second part included AHP, conducted based on weights from previous step, and ratios of index dimensions. As a result of AHP, 3 approaches were selected as equally satisfactory for evaluating Russian ES. To select the best one, data restrictions analysis was conducted. Thus, one approach was selected as a base for framework to assess ES for case of Russia. However, it needed to be formalized as it offered only qualitative assessment for part of indexes proposed. This task was successfully solved in this paper.